ETFs offering exposure to prediction markets

ETFs seeking to track the U.S. President, Senate, and House election event contract values using event contracts listed on Kalshi.

What is Roundhill Prediction Markets (RPM)?

RPM is a suite of ETFs offering exposure to prediction markets. These ETFs let you trade the outcomes of U.S. elections through your brokerage account. Each ETF seeks to track the real-time event contract value tied to a specific political outcome. Each RPM ETF uses event contracts listed on Kalshi.

Market-Driven Pricing

ETF prices seek to reflect changes in real-time market event contract values on election outcomes.

Transparent

While the ETF seeks exposure through event contracts listed on Kalshi, you can trade through your existing brokerage account.

Binary Settlement

The ETF will appreciate substantially in value if the linked party wins or lose substantially all of its value if the linked party loses.

Each Fund provides two potential outcomes, one of which will result in a near TOTAL LOSS OF YOUR INVESTMENT. Each Fund’s investment strategy is highly speculative and different from more typical investment products. It is important that investors understand a Fund’s investment strategy before making an investment in the Fund. An investment is suitable only for investors that are able to risk a complete loss. INVESTORS THAT DO NOT UNDERSTAND AND ACCEPT THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INVESTMENT IN THE FUND ARE URGED NOT TO PURCHASE FUND SHARES.

Catastrophic Loss Risk. In the event that the fund's Party does not win the Election, the Fund will suffer a catastrophic loss in value. Investors that are unwilling to incur such losses are urged not to purchase Fund Shares.

How RPM ETFs Work

Four simple steps to invest in election outcomes.

Choose a race

President, Senate, or House. Pick the election outcome you want exposure to.

Pick your side

Democratic or Republican. Each side has its own dedicated ETF.

Trade like any ETF

Buy and sell shares through your regular brokerage account. Brokerage fees and expenses may apply.

Settlement

Settled after certified election results.

Frequently Asked Questions

  • What is Roundhill Prediction Markets (RPM)?

    RPM is a suite of ETFs offering exposure to Prediction Markets. These ETFs let you trade the outcomes of U.S. elections through your brokerage account. Each ETF seeks to track the real-time event contract value tied to a specific party and election result.

  • What are prediction markets?

    Prediction markets are exchanges where participants trade on the outcome of real-world events. Event contract prices are tied to thereflect outcome occurring, updating in real time as new information, expectations, and positioning are incorporated into the price(s).

  • What is an event contract?

    An event contract is a financial instrument that permits market participants to trade on the occurrence or non-occurrence of a specified future event (such as the outcome of a political election). Each event outcome is binary in nature, settling at $1 if the specified event occurs, or expiring worthless at $0 if it does not. They are listed on prediction market exchanges, where prices fluctuate between those two values based on the event’s outcome.

    Event contracts settle once the outcome is officially determined according to the rules of the exchange. In some cases, this may occur shortly after the event. In others, resolution may take longer depending on certification processes or other formal determinations.

  • What is a prediction market ETF?

    A prediction market ETF provides exposure to event contracts through a traditional brokerage account. Instead of trading directly on a prediction market platform, investors can express a view on an outcome through a familiar ETF structure.

    Prediction market ETFs access event contracts listed on exchanges such as Kalshi, allowing investors to gain exposure without needing a separate account or direct participation in a prediction market.

  • How does the outcome of an event impact a prediction market ETF’s value?

    It is likely that on the day of the election or in the days immediately following it, the market will assess that the outcome of the election has become known, which will cause the value of the contracts to immediately converge to their final settlement value (either $1.00 or $0.00). This convergence will result in a sudden and substantial increase or decrease in the value of the Fund's NAV, which is highly unique among other investment products.

  • How does each RPM ETF handle a losing election outcome?

    Each Fund holds back a small portion of its assets, generally between 1% and 10%, in cash or cash equivalents through the election. If the Fund's party does not win and its event contracts settle at $0.00, the Fund uses that retained cash to buy new event contracts tied to the same party's outcome in the next election cycle. In that scenario, the Fund is expected to announce a reverse stock split. Full details are available in the Registration Statement.

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